New Physics and Its Evolution — The Future of Physics

CHAPTER XI THE FUTURE OF PHYSICS

It would doubtless be exceedingly rash, and certainly very presumptuous, to seek to predict the future which may be reserved for physics.

The rôle of prophet is not a scientific one, and the most firmly established previsions of to-day may be overthrown by the reality of to-morrow.

Nevertheless, the physicist does not shun an extrapolation of some little scope when it is not too far from the realms of experiment; the knowledge of the evolution accomplished of late years authorises a few suppositions as to the direction in which progress may continue.

The reader who has deigned to follow me in the rapid excursion we have just made through the domain of the science of Nature, will doubtless bring back with him from his short journey the general impression that the ancient limits to which the classic treatises still delight in restricting the divers chapters of physics, are trampled down in all directions.

The fine straight roads traced out by the masters of the last century, and enlarged and levelled by the labour of such numbers of workmen, are now joined together by a crowd of small paths which furrow the field of physics.

It is not only because they cover regions as yet little explored where discoveries are more abundant and more easy, that these cross-cuts are so frequent, but also because a higher hope guides the seekers who engage in these new routes.

In spite of the repeated failures which have followed the numerous attempts of past times, the idea has not been abandoned of one day conquering the supreme principle which must command the whole of physics.

Some physicists, no doubt, think such a synthesis to be impossible of realisation, and that Nature is infinitely complex; but, notwithstanding all the reserves they may make, from the philosophical point of view, as to the legitimacy of the process, they do not hesitate to construct general hypotheses which, in default of complete mental satisfaction, at least furnish them with a highly convenient means of grouping an immense number of facts till then scattered abroad.

Their error, if error there be, is beneficial, for it is one of those that Kant would have classed among the fruitful illusions which engender the indefinite progress of science and lead to great and important co-ordinations.

It is, naturally, by the study of the relations existing between phenomena apparently of very different orders that there can be any hope of reaching the goal; and it is this which justifies the peculiar interest accorded to researches effected in the debatable land between domains hitherto considered as separate.

Among all the theories lately proposed, that of the ions has taken a preponderant place; ill understood at first by some, appearing somewhat singular, and in any case useless, to others, it met at its inception, in France at least, with only very moderate favour.

To-day things have greatly changed, and those even who ignored it have been seduced by the curious way in which it adapts itself to the interpretation of the most recent experiments on very different subjects.

A very natural reaction has set in; and I might almost say that a question of fashion has led to some exaggerations.

The electron has conquered physics, and many adore the new idol rather blindly.

Certainly we can only bow before an hypothesis which enables us to group in the same synthesis all the discoveries on electric discharges and on radioactive substances, and which leads to a satisfactory theory of optics and of electricity; while by the intermediary of radiating heat it seems likely to embrace shortly the principles of thermodynamics also.

Certainly one must admire the power of a creed which penetrates also into the domain of mechanics and furnishes a simple representation of the essential properties of matter; but it is right not to lose sight of the fact that an image may be a well-founded appearance, but may not be capable of being exactly superposed on the objective reality.

The conception of the atom of electricity, the foundation of the material atoms, evidently enables us to penetrate further into Nature's secrets than our predecessors; but we must not be satisfied with words, and the mystery is not solved when, by a legitimate artifice, the difficulty has simply been thrust further back.

We have transferred to an element ever smaller and smaller those physical qualities which in antiquity were attributed to the whole of a substance; and then we shifted them later to those chemical atoms which, united together, constitute this whole.

To-day we pass them on to the electrons which compose these atoms.

The indivisible is thus rendered, in a way, smaller and smaller, but we are still unacquainted with what its substance may be.

The notion of an electric charge which we substitute for that of a material mass will permit phenomena to be united which we thought separate, but it cannot be considered a definite explanation, or as the term at which science must stop.

It is probable, however, that for a few years still physics will not travel beyond it.

The present hypothesis suffices for grouping known facts, and it will doubtless enable many more to be foreseen, while new successes will further increase its possessions.

Then the day will arrive when, like all those which have shone before it, this seductive hypothesis will lead to more errors than discoveries.

It will, however, have been improved, and it will have become a very vast and very complete edifice which some will not willingly abandon; for those who have made to themselves a comfortable dwelling-place on the ruins of ancient monuments are often too loth to leave it.

In that day the searchers who were in the van of the march after truth will be caught up and even passed by others who will have followed a longer, but perhaps surer road.

We also have seen at work those prudent physicists who dreaded too daring creeds, and who sought only to collect all the documentary evidence possible, or only took for their guide a few principles which were to them a simple generalisation of facts established by experiments; and we have been able to prove that they also were effecting good and highly useful work.

Neither the former nor the latter, however, carry out their work in an isolated way, and it should be noted that most of the remarkable results of these last years are due to physicists who have known how to combine their efforts and to direct their activity towards a common object, while perhaps it may not be useless to observe also that progress has been in proportion to the material resources of our laboratories.

It is probable that in the future, as in the past, the greatest discoveries, those which will suddenly reveal totally unknown regions, and open up entirely new horizons, will be made by a few scholars of genius who will carry on their patient labour in solitary meditation, and who, in order to verify their boldest conceptions, will no doubt content themselves with the most simple and least costly experimental apparatus.

Yet for their discoveries to yield their full harvest, for the domain to be systematically worked and desirable results obtained, there will be more and more required the association of willing minds, the solidarity of intelligent scholars, and it will be also necessary for these last to have at their disposal the most delicate as well as the most powerful instruments.

These are conditions paramount at the present day for continuous progress in experimental science.

If, as has already happened, unfortunately, in the history of science, these conditions are not complied with; if the freedoms of the workers are trammelled, their unity disturbed, and if material facilities are too parsimoniously afforded them,--evolution, at present so rapid, may be retarded, and those retrogressions which, by-the-by, have been known in all evolutions, may occur, although even then hope in the future would not be abolished for ever.

There are no limits to progress, and the field of our investigations has no boundaries.

Evolution will continue with invincible force.

What we to-day call the unknowable, will retreat further and further before science, which will never stay her onward march.

Thus physics will give greater and increasing satisfaction to the mind by furnishing new interpretations of phenomena; but it will accomplish, for the whole of society, more valuable work still, by rendering, by the improvements it suggests, life every day more easy and more agreeable, and by providing mankind with weapons against the hostile forces of Nature.

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